A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
